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ANew York Times BestsellerAnEconomistBest Book of 2015"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman'sThinking, Fast and Slow."Jason Zweig,TheWall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the weeks meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good And can this talent be taught In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary peopleincluding a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancerwho set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. Theyve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. Theyve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Ladens compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesnt require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the futurewhether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily lifeand is destined to become a modern classic. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Buy Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction on Amazon Superforecasting is the most important The Art and Science of Prediction by Phillip E Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction for the first time how we can all get better at making predictions In Superforecasting Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction The Art and Science of Prediction "I think Philip Tetlocks 'Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Superforecasting gives us a new Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Superforecasting The Art and Science of Prediction The Art and Science of Prediction Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Start by marking Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction as Want to Read: Superforecasting - Wikipedia Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction is a book by Philip E Tetlock and Dan Gardner released in 2015 It details findings from The Good Judgment Project Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Kindle Superforecasting: The Art and Science The Art and Science of Prediction Amazon The Story Factor: Inspiration Influence and Persuasion through the Art of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Buy Superforecasting: The Art and Science of The Art and Science of Prediction and over 2 million and reveals the science behind superforecasting Forecasting art and science: Unclouded vision - The Economist Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Luckily it can be learned Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction By Philip Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction Superforecasting: The Art and Science of The Art and Science of Prediction and over one million other Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably
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